About Asimov

[Utho]

Well, I have got no idea how many people here know Isaac Asimov; but I wondered if anyone here would possibly have an opinion on a special part of his work.

Anyone ever heard of „psychohistory “?

A fictional scientific technique, aimed at predicting the behaviour of societies - consisting of a large number of "individuals".

This seems to me like some kinda synthesis between the rational background behind the „Drake equation “ and a derivative of the old saying of: „Who does not value history, is bound to repeat it“. – At least a clever writers-twist.
But I am not sure about the real potential behind the idea.
Any opinions?

[HumanePain]

I loved reading Asimov's Foundation series, and psychohistory sounds quite plausible. Sociologists have already been able to plot the mathematics of certain social functions, fear and exuberance in the stock market for example or competition for jobs, evolution of nations and cities, governing dynamics.

Fascinating stuff.

[jack_the_knife]

Asimov is one of my favorite authors. My favorite work is "The Gods Themselves". I really like the Idea behind psychohistory, but I doubt it would work on a realistic scale.

[Duane]

That was actually part of the plot in the a future manga project of mine.

[Tam Li Hua]

If I recall, Asimov himself pointed out the basic flaw in psychohistory. Sure, it works...as long as no individuals disrupt the current course of events.

Then again, it's been over 10 years since I read the series, so I could be wrong. XD But yeah, Asimov rocked.

[Utho]

Thanks

@HumanePain
Facinating indeed. I had to read the whole series, after stumblin´on the first book and getting the introduction to the theory.

I´d also tend to say that (at least) most of the relevant factors really are scientifically accessible.
Being more into sociology, I could add that the observations Machiavelli made many centuries ago are still as valid today; giving the impression that social mechanisms are not easily prone to change over time. A stability, essential to any possible psychohistorical projections.


@jack_the_knife
I don´t know the book you mentioned. - Should be worth a try.

To me the one, most critical point of the concept seems (indeed) to be in the problem of highly influencial individuals, mentioned by Tam Li Hua, but even this seems (writers twist?) solvable. Asimov uses the trick of enlarging the population in his example to a point, where it is almost physically impossible for one individual to forcefully get all of them off their natural/projected path.
So, the size of the population to project - is a relevant factor to bear in mind.


@Duane
Cool way to keep the idea alive!


@Tan Li Hua
As mentioned, I believe you remembered the most critical point about the concept. - Quite good after them yrs.
In the series Asimov "produces" a character, you may remember the "Mule", who is gifted with super-natural powers, in order to overcome the huge-population thingy.

[HumanePain]

Originally Posted by Utho

Thanks

@HumanePain
Fascinating indeed. I had to read the whole series, after stumblin´on the first book and getting the introduction to the theory.

I´d also tend to say that (at least) most of the relevant factors really are scientifically accessible.
Being more into sociology, I could add that the observations Machiavelli made many centuries ago are still as valid today; giving the impression that social mechanisms are not easily prone to change over time. A stability, essential to any possible psychohistorical projections.

I am sure Isaac must have been aware of Niccolo's The Prince when he wrote The Foundation Trilogy as the character Hari Seldon calculates the fall of The Galactic Empire by "factoring in the likelihood of Imperial Assassinations, the increased frequency of revolts, the decline in scientific research..." etc.

By the way, it is interesting to apply Machiavelli to office politics: when a new VP comes in, and doesn't bring his own people with him from his previous employer he inevitably fails and is gone within a year. The successful ones who last bring in their own people and also reach out to existing power brokers to secure their local "empire". I even think some of it could be applied to Gnet: Helpmann was banned from VampireFreaks dot com and so brought his sycophants with him here to Gnet and so will last a little longer than the solo trolls because of it.

[Utho]

@HumanePain

I am a big fan of Machiavelli. Especially I love "Vom Staate" (s th with "state", I guess), which describes the workings of republics.
Strangely enough, this one is largely unknown in western "democracies".

I love the examples you give!
Indeed Machiavelli described mechanisms that belong to the topic of group-psychology/sociology. Thus he makes an ideal resource for "psy-his".

[Tam Li Hua]

Originally Posted by Utho

@Tan Li Hua
As mentioned, I believe you remembered the most critical point about the concept. - Quite good after them yrs.
In the series Asimov "produces" a character, you may remember the "Mule", who is gifted with super-natural powers, in order to overcome the huge-population thingy.

Oh yes! He was one of my favorite characters in the series.

In the end, I think Asimov's point was that, while something like psychohistory is good for short-term predictions...and thus helping to prevent the loss of information [the Encyclopedia Galactica]...but isn't 100% effective due to the ever-changing nature of humanity.

Heh. Guess I remember more than I thought I did. XD