H5N1 pandemic risk is still increasing...

[Fallen Angel]

As avian flu is still spreading in Europe (Turkey, Roumania and the last one : Greece) the threat of a world pandemia is becoming real.
So real that France has already bought over 50 millions flu masks and about 18 millions sample of a drug which 'may improve prospects of survival' in a case of human infection.

Here is a summary of the World Health Organisation (WHO) FAQ ( updated 14 October 2005 ) about this virus.
(Whole FAQ here :
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian...x.html#vaccine )

Originally Posted by WHO

What is special about the current outbreaks in poultry?

The current outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, which began in South-east Asia in mid-2003, are the largest and most severe on record. Never before in the history of this disease have so many countries been simultaneously affected, resulting in the loss of so many birds.

Originally Posted by WHO

What are the implications for human health?

The widespread persistence of H5N1 in poultry populations poses two main risks for human health.

The first is the risk of direct infection when the virus passes from poultry to humans, resulting in very severe disease.
In the present outbreak, more than half of those infected with the virus have died. Most cases have occurred in previously healthy children and young adults.

A second risk, of even greater concern, is that the virus – if given enough opportunities – will change into a form that is highly infectious for humans and spreads easily from person to person. Such a change could mark the start of a global outbreak (a pandemic).

Originally Posted by WHO

What about the pandemic risk?

A pandemic can start when three conditions have been met: a new influenza virus subtype emerges; it infects humans, causing serious illness; and it spreads easily and sustainably among humans. The H5N1 virus amply meets the first two conditions: it is a new virus for humans (H5N1 viruses have never circulated widely among people), and it has infected more than 100 humans, killing over half of them. No one will have immunity should an H5N1-like virus emerge.

All prerequisites for the start of a pandemic have therefore been met save one: the establishment of efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus. The risk that the H5N1 virus will acquire this ability will persist as long as opportunities for human infections occur. These opportunities, in turn, will persist as long as the virus continues to circulate in birds, and this situation could endure for some years to come.

Originally Posted by WHO

How serious is the current pandemic risk?

The risk of pandemic influenza is serious.[...]
Each additional human case gives the virus an opportunity to improve its transmissibility in humans, and thus develop into a pandemic strain.
While neither the timing nor the severity of the next pandemic can be predicted, the probability that a pandemic will occur has increased.

Originally Posted by WHO

Are there any other causes for concern?

Yes. Several.

• When compared with H5N1 viruses from 1997 and early 2004, H5N1 viruses now circulating are more lethal [...] and survive longer in the environment.

• H5N1 appears to have expanded its host range, infecting and killing mammalian species previously considered resistant to infection with avian influenza viruses.

• The behaviour of the virus in its natural reservoir, wild waterfowl, may be changing. The spring 2005 die-off of upwards of 6,000 migratory birds at a nature reserve in central China, caused by highly pathogenic H5N1, was highly unusual and probably unprecedented. In the past, only two large die-offs in migratory birds, caused by highly pathogenic viruses, are known to have occurred: in South Africa in 1961 (H5N3) and in Hong Kong in the winter of 2002–2003 (H5N1).

Originally Posted by WHO

Why are pandemics such dreaded events?

IOnce international spread begins, pandemics are considered unstoppable, caused as they are by a virus that spreads very rapidly by coughing or sneezing. The fact that infected people can shed virus before symptoms appear adds to the risk of international spread via asymptomatic air travellers.

Pandemics can cause large surges in the numbers of people requiring or seeking medical or hospital treatment, temporarily overwhelming health services. High rates of worker absenteeism can also interrupt other essential services, such as law enforcement, transportation, and communications.

Originally Posted by WHO

What is the status of vaccine development and production?

Vaccines effective against a pandemic virus are not yet available.
Although a vaccine against the H5N1 virus is under development in several countries, no vaccine is ready for commercial production and no vaccines are expected to be widely available until several months after the start of a pandemic.
[...] Current global production capacity falls far short of the demand expected during a pandemic.

Originally Posted by WHO

Can a pandemic be prevented?

No one knows with certainty. The best way to prevent a pandemic would be to eliminate the virus from birds, but it has become increasingly doubtful if this can be achieved within the near future.

Originally Posted by WHO

Is the world adequately prepared?

No. Despite an advance warning that has lasted almost two years, the world is ill-prepared to defend itself during a pandemic.

Ever heard about 'The Plague' from Stephen King...?
Feel free to comment...

[Fallen Angel]

(Actualy a lot of 'experts' aren't wondering anymore whether a pandemia will occur or not but WHEN it will occur.)

[Tanzanari]

Am I wrong, or this modern appearance of the avian flu just a genetic offshoot of the "Spanish Flu" that occurred during World War 1?

[Fallen Angel]

Yeah but the thing find i've found was in french ^^'
Actualy if the virus change into a form 'hightly infectious for human', it should in a form close from the 'spanish flu' (which killed over 40 millions people around the world ).
But not the same form exactly ( spanish flu = H1N1, avian flu = H5N1 ) cause it should be a more lethal form.
Scientists are curently working on sample of this virus found in a corpse buried in alaska in 1918...but they still don't manage to develop a vaccin.

This page deals with H5N1 mortality rate...frightening
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewCommentar...20051012a.html

[winged_dreams]

This scares me. I don't want lots of people to die. That's sad. I don't want to die either. hmm...

[Fallen Angel]

What is scaring me so much is how seriously the WHO is taking this threat.
If you feel concerned about this matter here are the 'Recommended strategic actions', a document which 'sets out activities that can be undertaken by individual countries, the international community and WHO to prepare the world for the next influenza pandemic and mitigate its impact once international spread has begun.
It was sent to all Member States on Friday, 2 September 2005.'

http://www.who.int/csr/resources/pub.../en/index.html

by the way, another human lethal case of H5N1 has just been reported in Thaïlande

[Fallen Angel]

5 min is a much to short time -_-

here is a blog which gather all H5N1 related news :
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/

[nancy]

Hi all
The threat of a world's bird flu infection is becoming real. So real that France has already bought over 50 millions flu masks and about 18 millions sample of a drug which 'may improve prospects of survival' in a case of human infection. my friend told me to use tamiflu drug for more information see- http://www.drugdelivery.ca/s3353-s-tamiflu.aspx it has all the collection of information, flu normally spreads through birds and took effected rapidly.

[spookypurple]

Recently loads of people have been coming into the shop ordering large amounts of the spice star anise. I was puzzled until I read somewhere that it's used against avian flu, and apparently is the basis for the drugs being used to treat it. I think they make it into a tea...

[Godslayer Jillian]

Originally Posted by nancy

Hi all
The threat of a world's bird flu infection is becoming real. So real that France has already bought over 50 millions flu masks and about 18 millions sample of a drug which 'may improve prospects of survival' in a case of human infection.

Hi Nancy. Please introduce yourself before anything else. Plus, you have just said exactly the same words the first post in this thread said. Please don't tell me you thought you were being smart by knowing this piece of information.

[DarkIce]

From a capitalistic point of view - I should have invested into Roche stocks. (Roche = manufacturer of Tamiflu)
On the other hand - what about the money if you die in any event. Hmmm.